Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
